Healthy tanker markets fuel the orderbook
The tanker orderbook is expected to grow significantly this year, as owners, full of cash on the back of the prolonged healthy market, return to the shipyards signing plenty of deals.
Consecutive years of under-investment in the tanker sector due to poor charter rates and uncertainty in the field of decarbonization have created a shortage of modern vessels in the market. Nevertheless, since the second half of last year, owners seem more confident, when talking about fleet renewal.
According to Xclusiv Shipbrokers data that S-X had access to, during the first two months of 2024, 67 tankers have been ordered, almost 36% up compared to the similar period of 2023.
The orderbook-to-fleet ratio stands now at 8.1% in terms of DWT. To be more specific, the total active tanker fleet includes 7,576 vessels with a combined carrying capacity of 690.58 mil DWT, while there are 657 vessels on order with a capacity of 55.81 mil DWT.
As Xclusiv points out, this year the newbuilding activity has been mainly driven by MR2 and VLCC sectors, with contracts for 21 and 15 vessels respectively. It is interesting to note that during the whole 2023, a total of 18 VLCCs were ordered. The VLCC orderbook now accounts for 4.1% of the active fleet, in terms of DWT.
The aframax/LR2 orderbook-to-fleet ratio has increased to 13.4%, as a result of the mass ordering in the sector since the second half of 2022. Double-digit numbers are also evident in the suezmax sector (11.4%) and MR2 vessels (10.9%).
Fleet age profile
The favorable picture on the supply side as a result of the low orderbook was the main argument of the owners, when expressing their positive views about the market outlook. Now that the orders keep piling up, analysts and owners are more cautious on their estimations.
But what are the facts on the age profile of the fleet? Xclusiv Shipbrokers data reveal that older tankers (11-20 year-old vessels) which are candidates for demolition within the next few years represent 51% of the trading fleet. Tankers that have exceeded 21 years of life account for 14% of the fleet.
As for younger tonnage, 34% of the fleet is between 0 and 10 years old.
The Greek shipbroking house expects that this year 114 tankers will be added to the trading fleet, while numbers will grow rapidly from 2025 onwards. Next year, 252 vessels with a capacity of 18.48 mil DWT are to enter the water and estimations show that in 2026 287 brand new vessels with a capacity of 29.93 mil DWT will leave shipyards.